rightcoastconservative

* Note: This is NOT a political post. Instead, we're talking about share market movement based on possible election outcome. Abusive comments are strictly prohibited and will be remove automatically. Local investors have been staying sideline for months ago. Do you started to feel itchy now? Honestly, this is the feeling of mine as an investor, from being active to passive lately. I can't wait to start investing again in share market. However, we shouldn't simply jump in next Monday, right? Let's see the 3 possible election outcome and how market may react accordingly... OUTCOME #1: BN retained power Judging by the strong influx of foreign funds flooding local share market prior to election, this is definitely their expected outcome. If materialize, Monday market generally will rally. However, I expect this kind of rally will be short-lived , and turning downward after that. Why? Simply ask yourself these questions: When is the better time to take profit if not that tim...

By TA Securities, We believe 1H13 will be a choppy period and election concerns could drag down the FBM KLCI by 8% to 10% in the period before market rebounds in the 2H13. The impetus for revival will mainly hinge on the end of election overhang and strong domestic demand. Sustained monetary easing on the back of low inflationary pressure and attempts to reduce budget deficits by cutting subsidies and channeling the savings to productive ventures are positive despite the short-term impact on earnings. Overall, domestic economy will play an integral role in sustaining confidence in domestic equities next year in the absence of any overwhelming micro drivers. Corporate earnings for 9M12 were less robust and we forecast full year earnings growth for the FBM KLCI to be 9.4% only. Chances of a strong revival in the immediate-term are minimal based on external sentiment and dwindling demand in key export markets. Our earnings growth forecast of 8% and 8.4% for CY13 and CY14 is not compelling...

Global Rally ex Malaysia. While global markets rallied in Jan 2012 to post their best January performance since 1994, Malaysia languished as an exception among all the major markets in East Asia, thus strangely validating our Sell call on the Malaysian market in January. Globally, the economic outlook in the US remained stable with 66% of companies that reported earnings thus far beating estimates. While the situation was different in Europe with the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) losing its AAA rating with S&P, nonetheless, the slush of liquidity unveiled by the Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) allowed European markets to rally accordingly as bond yields in Italy declined dramatically. Takeover spare continues . While December saw the privatization offers for KFC, QSR and YTL Cement as well as rumours of Proton’s stake sale by Khazanah, January saw more of the same including: DRB-Hicom acquiring Khazanah’s 42.7% stake in Proton fo...

During the recent Budget 2012 announcement, one of the controversial issue is the increment of 1% contributed by employers to EPF effective 1st January 2012. This will bring the minimum contribution rate by employers to 13% from 12% currently for those earning less than RM5,000 per month. The Fatter EPF While employees are welcoming the new rules, many employers are voicing out their concern on the extra burden being bear by them. "This is not fair to us, especially during current scenario where businesses are bracing for more challenging times ahead", says one of the concerned boss. Although there is some sort of tax-relief for employers who contribute more, bosses are still unsatisfied by the new ruling which adds to their fixed costs. What is the rationale behind? The reason is somewhat very good, that is "to equip Malaysians more retirement funds for their golden age" after recent facts shown that Malaysian generally fully utilized their EPF monies between 3-10...

According to The Edge over the weekend, " rumours are swirling that YTL Group has hired local investment bankers to work on a possible corporate exercise that could result in its restructuring ".   YTL Power and YTL Land , whereby YTL Corp has a 51.7% and 57.9% stake in respectively, are said to be targets for privatization or share swap exercises to align the group. Well, if this is true, it definitely will boost the said target companies share prices. Before jumping to the conclusion, let us get the view from professionals. With that, we have a timely article from RHB Research who touched on this matter as below: "We believe the likelihood of a privatization is low , as its FY12 PE of 12.8x is not much lower than its 5-year average forward PE of 14.7x. Besides, YTL Power's FY12 PE is similar to the 13x PE used for our end-2012 FBM KLCI 1,385 target." "Also, we believe it will be very costly to privatize YTL Power. While YTL Power could take on more deb...

We still feel that there is downside to the KLCI although with non-GLICs supposedly close to maximum cash levels and GLICs supposedly not aggressively supporting the market up till now, further downside maybe somewhat less than our recession market bottom of 1086 points. OSK: Normalised performance of September’s top stock picks With Budget 2012 (to be announced on this Friday 7th Oct) around the corner, OSK has no major expectations of the budget except that it will probably be people friendly and include: No further tightening of regulations with regards to the property sector which should be positive for property stocks No hike in Brewery Tax which will be positive for Carlsbergy and Guiness A 4.5 - 6.8% hike in Tobacco excise duties which will be mildly negative for BAT and JTI A likely hike in Civil Servants salary as the last hike was in 2008 which will be positive for MBSB OSK: Defensive Top 10 Buys OSK remain defensive for now with expectations of a further drop i...

Titled " Perilous Crossroads; Challenging Times Ahead " RHB Research painted a not so rosy 4Q2011 outlook for KLCI. Undeniably, our market are in for a turbulent times and we do not know how the year will be ended. Bear or Bull market? Below is the excerpt from the said report: ~ The US economic recovery has slowed to a crawl, while Europe is not just lurching from one crisis to another, it is lurching into a new one before the previous one is solved. There is growing risk that sustained weak confidence could exert downward pressure on demand and business activity worldwide. ~ Nevertheless, " double-dip " recession can still be avoided if political leaders get their acts together fast enough to contain the debt crises and avert a contagion given that global trade has not fallen off the cliff. ~ On the home front, we expect the Government to speed up the implementation of the Economic Transformation Programme, which coupled with resilient consumer spending, will prov...

Today (Feb 24), FBM KLCI down more than 20 points as it continue it's free-fall after breaking down the crucial psychological 1,500 level . Thanks Libya, thanks Qadaffi for causing uncertainties and panic selling of global markets. In between, Finance Malaysia found a very interesting statistic. Yes. KLCI beat regional markets for " falling the most " today. Below is the performance of regional markets: KLCI fell 1.41% (Champion of the day) Hong Kong fell 1.34% Japan fell 1.19% Singapore fell 0.96% South Korea fell 0.60% KLCI to continue it's downtrend tomorrow? How about KNM? Scare so... Based on the chart shown, technically KLCI is heading for its 3rd wave of downtrend since hitting historical high last month. In fact,  Normally, 3rd wave is steeper or faster. Furthermore, it still not yet reach the over-sold position by looking at stochastic. Very soon, KLCI may touch near 1,450 level. Hopefully, it will stop there. Or else, bye bye bye. Bargain hunting for KNM? ...

If you ask any broker or remisier out there, they may show their unity in explaining the 2 weeks down trend of KLCI, by saying " Pre-CNY profit-taking ma ". Sounds so familiar every year? Yes. This is a very good excuse for them or even fund managers to explain the sudden down trend, which caught many investors who jumps in the 2011 new year rally just three weeks ago. Pre-CNY surprise? When will market rebound? Today, investors are experiencing a KLCI rebound, be it technically or not, right before CNY next week. Before this, many of us are predicting a "risky" January, given the rich valuation KLCI commanding after 2010 run-up. In December 2010, we are still in a very cautious mode, only to find out that KLCI reaches a fresh one week all-time high right after 2011. The rally caught investors by surprise, and the great profit-taking too... KLCI are expected to rebound after yesterday morning staggering 20 points slump, only to recover shortly to close 6 points dow...

After the successful listing of MMHE , Petronas is going ahead with the listing of another subsidiary - Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd (PCG). The IPO, which could raise as much as RM 13.02 bn (US$4.2bn), would be the largest in Southeast Asia, according to term sheet. Below is the summary of the IPO: PCG is one of the leading integrated petrochemicals producers in Southeast Asia region, with 45% of revenue derived locally. Better profit margin in rising crude oil environment as prices of raw material was supplied by Petronas. The management has earmarked to 50% payout of its earnings, which translates to a dividend yield of about 4% . Valuations... At retail price of RM5.05, the historical price-earnings ratio (PER) works out to be about 16 times. Upon listing... EPF and Kumplan Wang Persaraan will be cornerstone investors. To expand its business and synergistic-growth acquisitions for the next 5 years. To consolidate its petrochemicals activities to increase the efficiency and profitab...

Recently, I personally have a chance to met up with some businessman from different industries. When we chat about business, they said " very competitive la ". When we chat about economy, they said " still very uncertain eh ". When we chat about KL market, they said " why keeps going up ahhhh? ". While newspaper and media are reporting a slew of  news regarding Euro debts problems, US high unemployment, Japanese deflation, and China's scary property bubbles, our market charging ahead unobstructed. In contrast, Ringgit is heading to a fresh 13 -year high against USD, KLCI is trying to out-beat its highest ever level, surpassing the pre-crisis level now. Although our economy was not as good as pre-crisis, our KLCI did. Why? Malaysia to gain from world's liquidity... Taking a macro-economic view, this is all due to the liquidity that the world governments created to rejuvenate their economies out from the 2008 recession. Actually, we are one of the b...

Zhulian is one of the leading Direct Selling Companies in Malaysia with more than 80 authorized agencies and approximately 100,000 distributors. Founded in 1989 with initial core business in distributing gold-plated jewellery through Multi-Level Marketing (MLM) channel, Zhulian had since diversified its products lines to home care, f&b, nutritional supplements, personal care, cosmetics, air treatment, water treatment, sleep enhancement products and disposable hygiene products. Keeps on Growing After venturing into Thailand and Indonesia market since 1990’s, Zhulian is currently looking to spread its wings to Philippines and Vietnam . In fact, Indonesia market is expected to contribute to its earnings tremendously in the next few years because of huge untapped market. Currently, it’s Thailand and Indonesia operations contribute 46% and 5% of its total sales respectively. New products The company would continue to introduce 8-10 new products every year to entice its consume...