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Continue from previous post on "New Minimum Wage Policy", here we analyze the impact from an economics perspective. Many people said the new policy will jack-up the inflation figures due to higher production costs. Subsequently, it will dampen the GDP growth numbers. Is it true? The impact on inflation and GDP growth is ambiguous . Setting a minimum wage would boost wages and consumption for workers who remain employed (likely to be the more productive workers, working in companies that have higher profit margin), but would hurt the profitability of businesses that are labor intensive and could potentially lead to higher unemployment rate . The impact on growth will likely be a net negative in the short-run as it might result in raised cost without an increase in productivity. In the long-run, this policy may bring about a positive impact if it succeeds in encouraging workers to upgrade their skills or for companies to invest more capital to...

Malaysia Prime Minister promised that there will be an important announcement on 1 May 2012 ( Labor Day ). Without much thought, it's very obvious that it was closely related to " Minimum Wage Policy " which already echoed by Government to win the heart of public. However, it receives much objections from private sectors, especially small-and-medium enterprises (SME) claiming that the new policy would impact on their balance sheets drastically. Really? Impact of a minimum wage policy As pressure mounts on the government to ensure that private sector workers in Malaysia earn salaries above the poverty level of RM760, Malaysia could set the minimum wage at RM900 for Peninsular Malaysia and RM800 for East Malaysia. According to World Bank, Malaysia's wages have risen by a CAGR of 2.6% over the past 10 years, while inflation has risen at a higher pace of 3.0-3.5%. Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia Who is the BIG winner? The new policy would benefit some 3.2mill...

The global economy grew at a more moderate pace in 2011 after the strong rebound in 2010. The growth momentum was weighed down by continued structural weaknesses and fiscal issues in the advanced economies, geopolitical developments in the Middle East and North Africa region and the disruptive impact of natural disasters on global manufacturing production. These developments reverberated onto international financial markets and contributed to heightened market volatility throughout the year. Despite the less favourable external environment, emerging economies continued to record firm domestic-driven economic growth. At the same time, emerging economies faced increasing challenges from volatile capital flows and rising inflationary pressures. Amidst this environment, the Malaysian economy continued to grow steadily underpinned by the expansion in domestic activity and firm regional demand. The Malaysian Economy in 2011 The Malaysian economy recorded a steady pace of growth of 5.1% in ...

After looking into all those research reports on 2012 market outlook by local securities or research houses, it's time for foreign research houses. In this series of 2012 outlook, we kick start with Credit Suisse 's report, in which a section of it was written specifically on Malaysia. And, below is the excerpt from it. Malaysia’s GDP growth to outperform its regional peers'? Real GDP growth expanded 5.8% yoy in Q3, led by strong private consumption (7.4% yoy) and fixed investment (6.1% yoy), and a surge in government consumption (21.8% yoy). On a seasonally adjusted basis, we estimate that GDP expanded 4.6% qoq annualized in Q3, stronger than that of Korea, Thailand, Singapore, the  Philippines, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Malaysia remains highly exposed to a sharp slowdown in the developed world, but, on a relative basis, we think its domestic demand will hold up better than that of the other small open economies in the region. We expect private consumpt...

CIMB research remain cautious on Malaysia's growth outlook for 2012 as several factors will put the brakes on growth - slower export growth due to the fragile western economies as well as slower consumption and investment growth due to heightened uncertainty and volatile financial markets. The implementation of ETP and stimulus measures cannot take up all the slack left by weak exports. Slowing growth, rising risks We expect GDP growth to slow to 3.8% in 2012 from an estimated 5% in 2011. The factors that shape the prognosis are: continuing weak global growth, pressured by volatile financial markets and Europe's sovereign debt worries; a downturn in Malaysia's export cycle; an expected slowing of consumption and investment due to worries over economic conditions What to expect in 2012? While not forecasting a global recession, a combination of fiscal tightening and a potential bigger financial shock from the debt crisis are expected to result in weaker global growth in 201...

What is the main risk for Asian economy? None other than Inflation . Across the region, fast-growing countries such as Singapore, Indonesia, India and China are reporting faster than expected price increases in tandem with their economic success. To fight inflation, many countries already carried out their tools of tightening. We have Singapore who fights imported inflation via stronger currency. Meanwhile, other countries are going for the traditional way of hiking interest rate and increasing bank reserve requirement since last year. At first, Bank Negara Malaysia called it as "normalization", but it seems to be "containerization" going forward to contain inflation. Who's fault? There are 2 causes for the problem, which I categorized them into international and national. Among the international contributing factors were: Loose monetary policies practiced by US and Europe, who slashes interest rate to almost zero and carried out large scale of asset purchases...

While inflation fears in China is a dominant factor, signs that China's growth is holding up well despite this concern will certainly fuel further growth. Traditionally in China, a higher inflation tends to exhibit a positive correlation with Chinese companies price-earnings ratios and nominal earnings growth. Having said that, the consensus view is that the government will raise borrowing costs to contain inflation and prevent the economy from overheating. With such growth euphoria and inflationary concern , a new fund is structured to take advantage of the current inflationary economy in China. This is a 4-year close-ended capital protected* fund which aims to provide income and capital appreciation over the medium term whilst protecting investors’ capital* on the Maturity Date. Where is the Fund's return comes from? The Hong Kong (HK) Option is designed to provide investors with potential annual coupon payments that are based on the performance of Chinese companies’ sto...

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) hiked the OPR by 25bps to 3% on 5 May as what some analysts said " Surprising ". The OPR hike was a pre-emptive strike on inflation pressures as the output gap closes. Many analysts are expecting hikes to resume only in July as inflation remains largely supply side driven. However, BNM seems to act before demand pull pressures dominate and before the output gap turns positive. In our view, the OPR and SRR hike is indicating two things here. Hints #1 Inflation is going to threaten the Malaysian economy in the near-term (at least). Recent increase in prices of petrol and sugar will further accelerate the numbers. With ongoing efforts by Government to reduce the subsidies, inflation numbers for sure will gone up. Citi Research: Regional Policy Rates as at 10th May 2011 Hints #2 Related to inflation also, BNM is trying to reduce the increasing food and resources prices. If we can reduce the import price, by having a stronger currency, this would be a wi...

As expected, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) decided to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75% yesterday. This was the 3rd time in a row that BNM left it unchanged. Are there any hints by BNM on Malaysia's economy this year? We can explore the "hidden messages" from the monetary policy statement as below: Regional Front: While advanced economies continue to register modest growth, most emerging economies have experienced strong growth. For Asian region, domestic economic activity continues to support the growth momentum amid weaker external demand. Shifts in global liquidity have resulted in significant capital flows into the emerging economies , in particular, Asian region, and have brought with it risks to macroeconomic and financial stability. The region is also being affected by global inflationary pressure arising from the higher commodity and food prices. On Malaysia: Recent indicators point towards a sustained expansion in private sector activity. External...

Post-financial crisis, bonds remain the preferred asset class for more conservative investors because it is less volatile than equities . Asia, for example, remains a sound investment destination with rapid urbanization as a younger and higher population growth will necessitate greater infrastructure spending in the coming years. To provides the golden opportunity, CIMB-Principal Asset Management Bhd has launched a new fund, that allows investors to capitalise on Asia, Australia, New Zealand and Middle East 's improving credit conditions given the high potential of more rating upgrades. "The demand for high-quality bonds in these targeted countries continues to remain high given the low interest rates outlook in the US and Europe, and this should support bond prices for the next few years. In addition, the slower economic recovery of these developed markets is shifting investment appetite to Asia. Combined with the likelihood of bond rating upgrades , this will mean potentia...

Forget about supply and demand issue of commodity, everyone knows the main mover now is Emerging Market, especially China. As long as US economy not yet recovered, China was expected to continue its great appetite to consume commodities globally. Not for its consumptions, but mainly because of China's currency management. China, already the largest creditor of US by holding USD which was slipping with a series of quantitative easing programs, would definitely forced China to diversify its holding elsewhere. However, China would hand-picking according to its own local demand. As such, Finance Malaysia forecasts those commodities which were used heavily in construction , infrastructure , production will continue to perform in 2011.   Top pick #1: Palladium One in four goods manufactured today either contain platinum group metals or the platinum group metals play a major role during their manufacturing process. Palladium was used in many electronics including computers, mobile phones,...

Yesterday, China surprisingly raised its interest rate by 0.25%  as follows: - 1 year lending rate from 5.31% to 5.56% - 1 year deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.50% Why China raise interest rate? 1. To cool down the over-heating property sector. 2. Combat inflation 3. Low liquidity in the banking system While inflation was hovering around 3.5% currently, even though the deposit rate has been raised, the net real interest rate is still in negative territory (3.5% - 2.5% = -1.0%). This is one of the main reason why Chinese were going all out to invests, especially in real-estate, due to its low yield if sitting in the bank (even lower than Malaysia). However, China would be facing another problem... Raising interest rate would attract capital inflows , which could dampen the purpose of containing inflation. Foreign investors view Chinese renmimbi as undervalue , mainly due to interventions by Chinese government. The latest news could ignite a fresh round of thoughts,...